Pakistan's former
prime minister Imran Khan surprises opponents in the Punjab by-election
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| Imran khan served nearly four years as PM besfore he was oustid in April |
After his party won a
critical provincial assembly in a shocking by-election surprise, former
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has reaffirmed his appeal for early elections.
In Punjab, his PTI
party defeated their bitter adversaries the PML-N by winning 15 of the 20 seats
up for grabs.
Shehbaz Sharif, the
PML-N leader and current prime minister, has taken a significant hit as a
result of the Punjab vote. The future of his already fragile coalition
government is now in jeopardy.
The political unrest in
Pakistan, which is already suffering from unprecedented inflation and energy
shortages, may soon go out of hand.
Punjab, the province
with the largest population in Pakistan, has traditionally been a stronghold of
support for Mr. Sharif's PML-N and his older brother, three-time former Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif.
But in the by-elections
held on Sunday, the party only took home four of the seats, with one going to
an independent candidate.
Following the
disqualification of PTI MPs for switching allegiance during a vote to choose
Mr. Sharif's son Hamza as Punjab chief minister, by-elections were ordered. His
brief tenure in office now appears to be coming to an end.
Imran Khan, however,
has the wind at his back. Since he was removed from office, he has been drawing
thousands of PTI followers to rallies.
The former cricket star
wrote on Monday, "The only way forward from here is to organise free and
transparent elections. "Any other course will only result in heightened
political ambiguity and escalating economic turmoil."
According to analyst
Cyril Almeida, Mr. Khan has only focused on one issue since it became evident
he would lose the confidence vote in parliamentas quickly as feasible, new
elections.
Now he can have it,
according to Mr. Almeida. "They may try to continue limping. However,
Imran is now essentially in control of the government."
The outcome in Punjab
indicates that residents there wanted to let the government know how difficult
their economic situation is.
Prices are rising as
the government works to address a foreign debt situation that was mostly left
over from Imran Khan's presidency before he was overthrown.
It was the first time a
sitting prime minister had lost a vote of confidence in Pakistan's history.
Are early general elections likely?
A group that supported
early elections already existed within the ruling party, according to
journalist and analyst Benazir Shah, but they were ignored.
"Within the PML-N,
the voices calling for a quick election may be heard once more. However, it's
possible that none of the PML-allies N's will consent to an election before
October 2023."
According to Ms. Shah,
the outcome in Punjab plainly demonstrates the PTI's ascendancy.
she claims.
But she also cautioned
caution about using these results as a barometer for the rest of the nation and
reading too much into them.
"While the PTI is
becoming more popular, general elections are the only way to truly determine
where the PML-N stands in Punjab."
How severe is the economic situation in Pakistan?
The unstable economic
condition in Pakistan complicates matters even further for the ruling alliance.
Within weeks of taking
power, it was compelled to raise fuel prices significantly and eliminate other
subsidies in order to satisfy IMF requirements and resume a $7.2 billion aid
package.
According to Cyril
Almeida, the Punjab result has simply "driven a stake home."
Without the aid of the
military, without the businessmen who had previously supported his election
campaigns, and without having any significant electable candidates [who have
reliable vote banks] in his camp, Imran Khan was able to clinch this victory for
his party, according to her.via the IMF agreement.
"Had the PML-N
won, the government would have planned to raise electricity prices. Instead, as
a result of evident uncertainty, markets have fallen.
He claims that if Imran
Khan's team wins reelection, they might even try to renegotiate with the IMF a
PML-N arrangement that was itself a revision of an earlier PTI deal.
He predicts that
"the economy will continue in serious difficulties."
"Worldwide conspiracy"
In the past, Mr. Khan has
said that he will not recognise an opposition-led administration, alleging that
there is a US-led plot to have him removed for refusing to support Washington
on problems involving Russia and China.
He has stated numerous
times that the opposition parties in Pakistan are collaborating with foreign
governments. Just before the vote, members of his party (PTI) deserted the
premises, claiming he was the victim of a global conspiracy.
These accusations have
"no veracity," according to the US, and Mr. Khan has never offered
any proof.
Imran Khan appeared to
have a lot going for him when he was elected prime minister in 2018.
He had become a
charismatic politician after becoming a national hero during his playing days
of cricket. After years of battle, he eventually succeeded in ousting the two
entrenched political dynasties that had ruled Pakistan for decades.
With energetic
demonstrations filled with upbeat songs and his massive social media presence,
he emerged as a new force that emphasised his steadfast anti-corruption
message. Mr. Khan vowed to transform Pakistan into a "new Pakistan"
and bring about "transformation."
Imran Khan appeared to
have a good chance of becoming the first Pakistani prime leader to serve a full
five-year parliamentary term.
However, the reason his
position seemed so safe also contributes to the explanation of his failure.
Although both sides dispute it, it is generally accepted that he was propelled
to power with the aid of Pakistan's strong army and intelligence services, and
that he has since broken with them.
Last Sunday was the
scheduled day for the vote in parliament, but deputy speaker Qasim Suri, a
member of Mr. Khan's political party, quickly vetoed the move, claiming it
demonstrated "foreign meddling." Additionally, Mr. Suri said that it
violated the constitution, which demands allegiance to the state.
The government of Mr. Khan then decided to dissolve the legislature and announce an early election. Several opposition members were enraged at this, and some accused the prime minister of treason for preventing it.